. Not everyone shares that opinion https://www.thepackersfanshop.com/Montravius-Adams-Jersey , as Greinke has some social anxiety issues and he rubs a lot of people the wrong way; but he’s a fascinating quote-machine and almost certainly one of the most cerebral, and interesting people in baseball. Greinke has always had a deep interest in scouting and Sabermetrics, and in his brief stint with the Brewers he was a fixture in their draft war room. Perhaps my favorite thing Greinke ever did, was to conduct an experiment with his pitching over the course of a few seasons. Greinke has been good for ages, but it was never enough for him to be good — he also wanted a deep understanding of why he was good and how he could get better.For those of you who don’t follow baseball, we know that there are a few things that pitchers have control over and a few things they don’t. That’s a bit of an oversimplification, and modern research has revealed that it’s more like there are some things they control a great deal, and some things they control less — but the point stands, and at the time Greinke did his little experiment he relied on FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching):”I try to get ahead of the count without leaving it run down the middle in a person’s power zone... That helps me not walk guys, and then, when I get two strikes, I try to strike guys out. And that’s how I try to pitch, to keep my FIP as low as possible.”The FIP stats are strikeouts, walks, and home runs, and historically FIP is a better predictor of future ERA than ERA itself. Greinke’s theory was that by focusing on the elements of FIP, that he could make himself even more efficient than he already was. That’s not how it worked out.Greinke’s FIP did decrease significantly but his ERA didn’t, due to an increased Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). BABIP is usually a fairly random statistic, fluctuating with a few bloop singles or diving catches, but in this case it’s more likely that Greinke’s strategy was having some unforeseen consequences. When you focus on raising strikeouts and limiting walks above all else, hitters are going to know that you will be throwing strikes, and strikes are easier to hit and hit hard. Greinke doesn’t suffer failure well, and he eventually abandoned the experiment, returning to his former approach and repertoire, with extremely great success. FIP is a good statistic for quantifying a pitcher’s production, and it’s not controversial that strikeouts are good for a pitcher, while walks and home runs are bad. So why didn’t Greinke’s strategy work, and what does any of this have to do with Aaron Rodgers?FIP and InterceptionsThe problem with pitching to FIP is that FIP isn’t a recipe on how to pitch. FIP measures the good and bad things that happen while you go about pitching as well as you can. Minimizing walks to an absurd extreme will get you hit hard Jake Ryan Jersey , and trading a few walks to fool a few additional hitters is worth it.In the NFL, throwing an interception is seen as just about the worst thing you can do, and no one throws fewer picks than Aaron Rodgers. However, there is such a thing as being too careful with the ball, and I suspect that Aaron is falling victim to the same kind of thinking as did Zack Greinke. It’s easy enough for a QB go an entire season without a pick by simply throwing the ball directly into the ground on every snap. Your offense won’t be very effective, but it will be “safe,” and Rodgers does a version of this on his many, many throwaways and third-down sacks. Avoiding interceptions should not be an end unto itself. The mark of a great quarterback is the ability to execute all types of plays and use the entire field while limiting mistakes; it is not to take out all possible risks to limit mistakes. When Rodgers was at his best he was still very careful with the ball, but he also made big plays look routine and threw a huge variety of passes. He didn’t throw interceptions because he was insanely accurate and had one of the NFL’s best arms, not because he was a bit of a chicken. Rodgers still rates fairly well in stats like ANY/A that reward a lack of picks, but I suspect this is a bit like Greinke fooling FIP but not ERA.The narc on Rodgers this season is his completion percentage, which is one of the worst in football. Completion percentage isn’t everything, but in this case it is telling. Just as Greinke traded walks for harder hit balls, Rodgers is trading completions for fewer picks, and given the sacks he’s taken, that completion percentage probably understates things.Rodgers has, since 2015, given up a lot of what once made him great. When he holds the ball for a long time we often see it as Rodgers waiting for the big play, but I don’t think that’s right. I think it’s more about ensuring he doesn’t make the big mistake. Rodgers is now defined by that interception streak more than is healthy. He is supposed to be defined by brilliance that just happens to include care of the football as the icing on the cake.An overly careful Aaron is both ineffective and boring to watch, and if he doesn’t realize why interceptions are actually worth avoiding, the Packers dynasty is as good as over. Green Bay initially looked to be well out of the Florida State safety’s range at pick 14 last year, but ultimately passed on him after a draft-day slide." />Skip to main contentclockmenumore-arrownoyesHorizontal - WhiteAcme Packing Companya Green Bay Packers communityLog In or Sign UpLog InSign UpFanpostsFanshotsSectionsPackersOddsAboutMastheadCommunity GuidelinesStubHubMoreAll 322 blogs on Horizontal - WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections The APC PodcastPackers Film RoomFantasy Football Adviceafter a draft-day slide.CDTShareTweetShareShareWhich prospects could take a Derwin James-like tumble toward the Packers in the 2019 NFL Draft?Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty ImagesIn the month leading up to the 2018 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers were predicted to be on the lookout for defensive help. With Morgan Burnett on the way out, the Packers especially appeared to be a great landing spot for safety Derwin James. The only problem was that James was anticipated to go as high as the seventh overall pick to Tampa Bay and the Packers owned the 14th pick. Likewise, Virginia Tech linebacker Tremaine Edmunds was thought to be a target as high as the fifth overall slot to Denver. Edmunds, an athletic, versatile front-seven player who couldplay any linebacker position and rush off the edge figured to be long gone by the time the Packers were on the clock.In the aftermath of the first round, James was drafted with the 17th pick by the Los Angeles Chargers and Edmunds with the 16th pick by the Buffalo Bills. Green Bay passed on both defensive talents to trade down and accumulate a 2019 first-rounder while selectingcornerback Jaire Alexander.With last year’s tumbles in mind Lance Kendricks Color Rush Jersey , here are a few 2019 NFL Draft prospects who could be available to Green Bay at the 12th pick despite often being mocked much higher.Ed OliverThe Houston product has been listed all over the place in mock drafts, but many recent ones have Oliver rising up to Tampa Bay’s fifth pick. On the shorter side at 6’2, Oliver is still an extremely athletic defensive lineman capable of playing all along the line and, as some have hypothesized, inside linebacker. Oliver could be one heck of a chess piece for many NFL teams, but any run on quarterbacks and edge rushers could potentially drop him down the board.If the Packers can land Oliver at pick 12, it would be a home run. However, it does not look likely at this point.Montez SweatThe majority of mocks have Sweat firmly inside the top 10 after a rare NFL Combine performance. But could a heart condition, considered to be minor, help Sweat slide to Green Bay?The long, lanky edge rusher from Mississippi State ran an incredible 4.41 forty-yard dash at 260 pounds and had a high level of production in the SEC to back up the testing measurables. Sweat could be a fit for Jacksonville, Detroit, or Buffalo at picks seven through nine. But if he sneaks through that stretch, Denver (who drafted Bradley Chubb last year) and Cincinnati would appear to be prime fits for a quarterback. It would be a no-brainer choice for Green Bay if Sweat is still available.Josh AllenYou would have to search high and low for a mock draft that does not have Allen listed inside the top 10 picks, much less the top five. Although Allen tested well at the Combine and put together an incredible 2018 campaign at Kentucky, is it possible that organizations could prefer other pass rushers more? Sweat and Brian Burns’ speed and athleticism, Rashan Gary’s potential and versatility, and Oliver’s Aaron Donald-like similarities could vault each of those players into the first 10 picks. That does not count Nick Bosa, who is almost assuredly going to be taken in the first three selections.It has been a foregone conclusion for quite some time that Allen is one of the draft’s premier edge rushers. But what if the pecking order is not as set in stone as thought?Dwayne HaskinsGreen Bay will not be the destination for Haskins, but there is an outside chance he is available with the 12th pick and the Packers can auction off that selection to the highest bidder.For Haskins to drop, it would take a combination of scenarios. At minimum, Kyler Murray and Drew Lock would have likely already been drafted at the quarterback position and valued more than Haskins. Many top defensive players would have to be chosen early, notably the pass rushers, and a wildcard like D.K. Metcalf or T.J. Hockenson needs to enter the top 10.In all likelihood, the availability of Haskins would not be a good thing for Green Bay and trading down might be the best option. But the annual run on quarterbacks, especially in a down year for signal callers, might have many people simply assuming that Haskins will be a top-10 selection.